mepusica
10-03-2009, 01:34 AM
There are 24 players left in a 5000$ guaranteed tournament on Full Tilt poker.
Here's the hand I busted out on
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/884278
Would you have played it differently?
The way I see it there is no way I can get out of the hand on the flop where I have 40% or better chance to win against AA, KK, JJ, AK (as long as they are not spades). If I'm up against pocket Q's I have 30% chance of winning. The worst situation would be if my opponent had AK of spades in which case I have 17% chance of winning. By moving all in I risk 55000 chips to win a pot of 150000 chips. That's roughly pot odds 3 or 2:1. With pot odds 3 I only need to be a more than 33% favorite to have an expected value of the bet which is above 1.
I would love to hear your opinion on the hand.
Here's the hand I busted out on
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/884278
Would you have played it differently?
The way I see it there is no way I can get out of the hand on the flop where I have 40% or better chance to win against AA, KK, JJ, AK (as long as they are not spades). If I'm up against pocket Q's I have 30% chance of winning. The worst situation would be if my opponent had AK of spades in which case I have 17% chance of winning. By moving all in I risk 55000 chips to win a pot of 150000 chips. That's roughly pot odds 3 or 2:1. With pot odds 3 I only need to be a more than 33% favorite to have an expected value of the bet which is above 1.
I would love to hear your opinion on the hand.