Greece v Russia
Russia let me down with the draw-no-bet tip against the Poles. They should have been out of sight by the time the home captain lashed in that wonder-goal. Poland had to dig deep to avoid defeat, and it was impressive and notable that they did. Russia were trading at long odds-on prior to the equalizer but sloppy finishing cost them two points.
Greece have started both matches badly so far. It is remarkable that after conceding early in matches against Poland and Czech Republic they shored up the defence a little and actually managed to win both second-halves.
A win for Greece propels them into an unlikely quarter-final (probably with Germany), while a win for Russia means they top the group and probably avoid Germany. Where Russia are likely to win this match is through a porous and uncertain Greek back line. Arshavin and Dzagoev can run amongst them causing mayhem, or luckless Kerzhakov can use his speed to race clear if they play a higher line.
I expect Russia to dominate as they did against the Czechs, but with the prize in sight they are likely to push for a healthy lead during the match.
Russia -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.03.