Poland v Greece
This will be the first game of the EURO 2012, featuring Poland against Greece.
If we check the team's strenghts, we see that Poland has a better team, and I consider Greece to have lots of problems at scoring.
We all know how important this game will be for Poland, because of it being the first game in their euro cup. It won't only be important for the country, since I expect a bit of help from the referees. It is also well known that the referees help the hosting nations in their way to the quarter finals, and with this being the first game...
But if we move for footballistic arguments, just checking the last games from Greece we can see how they failed to win clearly against worse oppopnents, like the 1:0 win against Armenia or the 1:1 draw against Slovenia.
All their recent games have been Under 2.5, but I'm not taking that bet since I can easily expect a 2-1 win by Poland here if Greece somehow manages to score a goal at the early stages of the game.