Nicolas Almagro takes on Richard Gascquet in the 3rd round at Wimbledon and finds himself a massive underdog in this match according to the bookies which I donít understand and I think this match should be more like evens as these 2 are evenly matched.
Almagro has a win rate this year of 74% before this tournament whereas Gascquet has a win rate of 64% and if you look at the last 3 months only Almagro's win rate stays at 74% and Gascquet's win rate rises to 71% - all fairly even with the slight edge going to Almagro.
Almagro is ranked 11 and Gascquet is ranked 19 so if you look at their performances agaist players ranked between 11 and 20 Almagro has played 2 matches and won both whereas Gascquet hasnt played anyone ranked in that band but of the 6 matches he has played against the top 10 he has lost 5 in straight sets.
Neither of these players does well on grass and before this tournament neither had won any matches this season and very few from last season. In the first round Almagro beat Rochus 3-2 and then in the 2nd he beat Rufin 3-1 whereas Gascquet beat Kamke 3-0 and then Bemelmans 3-0 but these players are not anywhere near the same standard as Almagro will be today.
In summary the odds are too high for an Almagro win and there is a lot of value in them so Im going for Almagro with medium stakes.